Semi-bluff calculator
Enter the pot, your bet, how often the opponent folds and your outs. See what the bet is worth, what checking is worth, and how many folds the bet needs.
Betting is worth more than checking here.
How the figure is worked out
A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand that is behind now but can improve. It wins in two ways: the opponent folds and you take the pot at once, or he calls and your hand gets there. The value of the bet is the chance he folds times the pot, plus the chance he calls times your average result when called.
An example: there is $100 in the pot and you bet $75 with a flush draw on the flop, which wins 35% of the time with two cards to come. When called, you win $250 35% of the time and lose $75 the rest: $12.42 on average. If he folds three times in ten, the bet is worth 30% of $100 plus 70% of $12.42, which is $38.69. Checking and seeing both cards without a bet is worth about $35, so the bet earns a little more and takes the pot at once three times in ten.
The sum plays the hand to the end without more bets once you are called. In a full hand the opponent can raise you off your draw, and you can win more after you hit, as the implied odds calculator shows.
Questions
What is a semi-bluff?
A bet or raise with a hand that is probably behind but can improve, such as a flush or a straight draw. It wins when the opponent folds and when the draw comes in.
How often does the opponent need to fold?
That depends on your chance to win when called. The more often your hand gets there, the fewer folds the bet needs. A flush draw with an open-ended straight draw can make money with no folds at all.
Is it better to bet the draw or to check?
Bet when the folds and your chance to win when called are worth more together than checking and seeing the next card. The calculator shows both figures.