Poker odds chart: outs, draws and the chance of being dealt a hand
A 4 minute read · Updated 31 October 2026
Most poker arithmetic comes down to a handful of numbers that are worth knowing by heart. Here they are in three tables: how often a draw completes, how often the hands you want are dealt, and what the flop does for a pair or two suited cards. The figures are exact, not rounded rules, with the rule of four and two beside them so that you can see how close it gets.
How often a draw gets there
An out is a card that makes your hand the best one. Count them on the flop, then read the row. The first percentage is the chance of getting there by the river with two cards to come; the next two are the chance on the next card alone, from the flop (47 unseen cards) and from the turn (46). The last column is the rule of four and two: outs times four with two cards to come, outs times two with one, which is close enough at the table up to about twelve outs.
| Outs | A common draw | By the river from the flop | On the turn | On the river | Rule of four and two |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4% and 2% | |
| 2 | A pocket pair to a set | 8.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8% and 4% |
| 3 | 12.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 12% and 6% | |
| 4 | A gutshot straight draw | 16.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16% and 8% |
| 5 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 20% and 10% | |
| 6 | Two overcards | 24.1% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24% and 12% |
| 7 | 27.8% | 14.9% | 15.2% | 28% and 14% | |
| 8 | An open-ended straight draw | 31.5% | 17.0% | 17.4% | 32% and 16% |
| 9 | A flush draw | 35.0% | 19.1% | 19.6% | 36% and 18% |
| 10 | 38.4% | 21.3% | 21.7% | 40% and 20% | |
| 11 | 41.7% | 23.4% | 23.9% | 44% and 22% | |
| 12 | A flush draw with a gutshot | 45.0% | 25.5% | 26.1% | 48% and 24% |
| 13 | 48.1% | 27.7% | 28.3% | 52% and 26% | |
| 14 | 51.2% | 29.8% | 30.4% | 56% and 28% | |
| 15 | A flush draw with an open-ended straight draw | 54.1% | 31.9% | 32.6% | 60% and 30% |
| 16 | 57.0% | 34.0% | 34.8% | 64% and 32% | |
| 17 | 59.8% | 36.2% | 37.0% | 68% and 34% | |
| 18 | 62.4% | 38.3% | 39.1% | 72% and 36% | |
| 19 | 65.0% | 40.4% | 41.3% | 76% and 38% | |
| 20 | 67.5% | 42.6% | 43.5% | 80% and 40% |
A flush draw gets there 35% of the time by the river, an open-ended straight draw 31.5%, and both together, fifteen outs, more often than not. Our pot odds calculator puts any of these figures against the bet you face and says whether the call pays.
How often the good hands are dealt
There are 1,326 two-card combinations. A pair is six of them, a suited hand four and an offsuit hand twelve, which is why offsuit hands come three times as often as the same hand suited.
| The hand | How often | That is about |
|---|---|---|
| A pair of aces | 0.45% | Once in 221 hands |
| Aces or kings | 0.9% | Once in 110 hands |
| A pair of tens or better | 2.3% | Once in 44 hands |
| Any pocket pair | 5.9% | Once in 17 hands |
| Ace-king, suited or not | 1.2% | Once in 83 hands |
| Ace-king suited | 0.3% | Once in 332 hands |
| Any ace | 14.9% | Once in 7 hands |
| Two cards of one suit | 23.5% | Once in 4 hands |
| Two cards ten or higher | 14.3% | Once in 7 hands |
Aces come once every 221 hands, so a player who sees 300 hands a night holds them about once a night and waits a week between sets of kings. That is the arithmetic behind the beginner strategy rule to play more hands than the premium ones, and to play them from good seats.
What the flop does
| You hold | On the flop | How often |
|---|---|---|
| A pocket pair | A set or better | 11.8% |
| Two unpaired cards | At least a pair with one of them | 32.4% |
| Two unpaired cards | Two pair, one of each | 2.0% |
| Two suited cards | A flush | 0.8% |
| Two suited cards | A flush draw | 10.9% |
A pocket pair flops a set about one time in eight and otherwise is usually just a pair, which is why small pairs are played for the set and folded when it misses. Two suited cards flop a flush draw one time in nine and a made flush almost never, so suitedness is worth a little, not a lot: about two to three percentage points of equity against one opponent.
Using the numbers
- Count outs once, on the flop, and do not count the same card twice: a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw is fifteen outs, not seventeen, because two of the straight cards are also flush cards.
- Discount outs that make your hand but make someone else a better one, such as a flush card when the board pairs.
- Compare the chance with the price. Calling $20 to win $100 needs you to win one time in six, about 17%. Five outs give you that by the river with two cards to come; four outs, at 16.5%, just miss.
- With two cards to come, use the by-the-river figure only when you will see both cards for this one bet. If a second bet is coming on the turn, use the one-card figure.
The pot odds calculator does the arithmetic with your own numbers, the hand strength calculator has the same outs figures next to the 169 starting hands, and the glossary has the words.
Questions
What are the odds of hitting a flush draw?
With nine outs on the flop, 35% by the river with two cards to come, 19.1% on the turn alone and 19.6% on the river alone. The rule of four and two gives 36% and 18%.
What is the rule of four and two in poker?
A quick estimate: multiply your outs by four with two cards to come, or by two with one card to come, to get the chance in percent. It is within a point or two of the exact figure up to about twelve outs; above that it overshoots.
How often are you dealt pocket aces?
Once in 221 hands, 0.45% of the time. Any pocket pair comes once in 17 hands, and ace-king once in 83.
How often does a pocket pair flop a set?
11.8% of the time, about one time in eight. The rest of the time it is one pair against a board that may have overcards.